In 2024, China's exports are projected to grow robustly while imports are expected to see slight growth, resulting in a record-high trade surplus for the year. The supporting factors include:

  1. Low base effects
  2. In the second half of 2024, China's exports to major markets are anticipated to accelerate due to concerns over a new trade war
  3. The value of exports for automobiles and integrated circuits (IC) is expected to expand significantly

In 2025, the new trade war will be a crucial factor in determining the growth direction of China's exports. Recently, the U.S. President indicated that a 10% import tax on China will be imposed, but details regarding the products and the timeline for the tax implementation have not yet been specified. It is initially expected that the U.S. President will enforce the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which, after signing the order, is anticipated to take at least 2-4 months to allow for negotiations before it takes effect.

The Kasikorn Research Center believes that the net effect of the U.S. tax increase will slow down China's exports in 2025 compared to 2024, but growth is still expected at around 3%. In the first half of 2025, exports are likely to accelerate due to increased shipments to major markets, especially the U.S., which accounts for 15% of total exports. In the second half of the year, exports are expected to slow down due to the impact of the U.S. import tax and base effects.

  • It is important to monitor the inauguration ceremony of the U.S. President on January 20, 2025, when further details regarding the import tax measures on China are expected to be announced.